The Forecast

The latest Oregon Revenue Forecast is public and outlines progress.

"The economic recovery from the pandemic continues to be robust. Booming wage gains are now offsetting the fading federal aid. Household incomes and consumer spending remain strong, supporting an overall bright outlook," according to the forecast summary. "The economy is set to reach full employment a year from now, or three times faster than in the aftermath of the Great Recession."

Read the summary of the forecast attached.

Governor Kate Brown today issued the following statement on the state’s November revenue forecast:

“Today’s revenue forecast, along with the good news that Oregon’s unemployment rate has dropped to 4.4%, confirms that we have strong momentum for recovery from the economic impacts of COVID-19. And with a healthy ending fund balance, we have an opportunity to make targeted investments to close the gaps for Oregonians still in need. We must continue to center equity in our recovery efforts to ensure that the communities disproportionately impacted by the pandemic due to historic disparities––Oregon’s Black, Indigenous, Latino, Latina, Latinx, Asian, Pacific Islander, Tribal, and people of color––benefit equitably from Oregon’s strong economic recovery.

“As we head towards the February legislative session, I’ve tasked a subgroup of the Racial Justice Council — that includes business owners and workers — with developing a package of workforce investments for the February session aimed at helping people get back to work and improving career paths. And because lack of stable housing is often the biggest barrier to getting or keeping a job, I am also continuing my conversations with legislative leaders about policy solutions to help people access and retain stable housing.

“We also have the opportunity to leverage our state revenues with the additional federal resources that are coming our way from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, setting us up for tremendous possibilities to help Oregon’s families and businesses continue to recover.

“As we recover, we must support the communities that have been disproportionately impacted. With these critical investments from the Biden-Harris administration, we can now ensure these communities have access to good-paying jobs, affordable broadband, reliable public transit, and other essential resources.”

Oregon Senate Republicans Statement

Every single revenue forecast since the pandemic began has exceeded expectations. Today’s forecast is more of the same, but now state government coffers are being padded by inflation. The revenue forecast acknowledges that inflation is increasing the cost of living for Oregonians.

“Inflation is devastating for working families, but pads the pockets of government,” said Senate Republican Leader Tim Knopp (R-Bend). “Blowout spending from federal government borrowing has given us more money than we know what to do with at the same time most working people have gotten effective pay cuts because everything is more expensive. Yet, Democrats’ vision continues to be tax, borrow, and spend. It’s time to give working Oregonians some relief in their family budget.”

Oregon Democrats have consistently rejected tax relief measures that would have put more money in the pockets of working Oregonians. This year, they voted to tax stimulus checks and basic necessities, denied relief to those struggling with student loans, and denied property tax relief for veterans.

“The state continues to get bigger budgets, but working families are struggling to make ends meet because of inflation,” said Senator Lynn Findley (R-Vale), member of the Senate Finance and Revenue Committee. “Oregon Democrats have refused every opportunity to give working families a break. I will be reintroducing legislation to cut taxes for everyday necessities on working families. Prescription drugs, diapers, and feminine hygiene products should not be taxed."

Revenue forecast documents can be found on the Oregon Legislature's website.

Background

The Oregon Economic Forecast provides information to planners and policy makers in state agencies and private organizations for use in their decision making processes. The Oregon Revenue Forecast opens the revenue forecasting process to public review. It is the basis for much of the budgeting in state government. The forecast reports are issued four times a year: Usually in March, June, September, and December.

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